Marcels Projections for AL East Catchers and Musings on Francisco Cervelli

The Yankees' decision to let Russell Martin go obviously weakened the team at the catcher position. To gauge where the team stands, I thought it would be fun to compare the Marcels projections of the 2013 AL East catchers.

Note: Marcels does not project defense, so this article focuses solely on offense.

The following table lists Marcels projections for the likely starting and backup catchers of the AL East teams, sorted by wOBA. I also included Russell Martin for the sake of comparison:

Hitter	Team	Age	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Batting Runs	Reliability
Wieters, Matt	Orioles	27	552	495	127	26	1	20	51	3	1	.257	.328	.434	.326	70	85%
Ross, Dave	Red Sox	36	315	281	72	15	1	10	29	3	1	.256	.326	.423	.322	39	64%
Saltalamacchia, Jarrod	Red Sox	28	463	420	99	22	2	21	37	2	1	.236	.299	.448	.318	56	76%
Martin, Russell	Pirates	30	490	429	100	18	0	17	51	8	2	.233	.322	.394	.313	57	82%
Cervelli, Francisco	Yankees	27	215	189	50	8	1	4	19	3	1	.265	.338	.381	.312	24	56%
Arencibia, J.P.	Blue Jays	27	435	399	94	19	2	20	29	3	1	.236	.290	.444	.311	51	77%
Thole, Josh	Blue Jays	26	416	372	97	18	1	5	37	2	1	.261	.331	.355	.295	43	77%
Lobaton, Jose	Rays	28	302	265	62	14	1	6	30	3	2	.234	.317	.362	.294	31	49%
Molina, Jose	Rays	38	356	324	78	14	1	9	25	4	1	.241	.300	.373	.293	36	69%
Teagarden, Taylor	Orioles	29	236	211	48	10	1	7	19	3	1	.227	.296	.384	.292	24	37%
Stewart, Chris	Yankees	31	297	267	63	14	1	6	23	3	1	.236	.299	.363	.284	29	56%

Note: I did not include Austine Romine because he has only 20 MLB PAs. Marcels projections for players with so little MLB experience are merely noise.

Looking at the starters, as expected Wieters projects to be the best catcher in the division. Russell Martin would have put the Yankees in the middle of the pack - Martin's projection is similar to Saltalamacchia's and Arencibia's, and much better than the Rays' catchers.

However, backup catchers always play a significant number of games, so let's look at how the catchers project by team for the major "percentage" stats, again sorted by wOBA. The last row of the table also includes the MLB averages for catchers:

Team	PAs	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Red Sox	778	.244	.310	.438	.320
Orioles	788	.248	.318	.419	.315
Blue Jays	851	.248	.310	.401	.303
Yankees	512	.248	.316	.371	.295
Rays	658	.238	.308	.368	.293
MLB Avg.		.248	.318	.400	.307

The key observations from the team perspective are that:

• David Ross' batting skills and Taylor Teagarden's lack thereof projects the Red Sox to have slightly better overall offense from their catchers than the Orioles.
• Ross sure would have been an upgrade over Chris Stewart. (The Red Sox got Ross for a modest 2-year, $6.2 million deal.)
• The Yankees' catching projects to be horrific.

I included PAs in the team stats so that we can eyeball whether the individual projections sum up to realistic playing time (because projections are done on individuals and not in a team context). In 2012, the average team got 640 PAs out of the catcher position. 640 does not include appearances a player made at other positions; for example, Weiters played 9 games as a DH, but his DH plate appearances are not included in the catcher totals. 

Now let's focus on the Yankees. Their projected number of PAs is 512, well short of 640. It might be Cervelli or Stewart or some other catcher(s), but someone will have to fill the gap. The projections suggest Stewart will catch about 60% of the time, Cervelli about 40%. This should not be taken too literally; the way the Marcels algorithm works, it merely reflects that Cervelli had 3 MLB PAs in 2012 while Stewart had 157; which, arguably, was due to Stewart lacking minor league options.

I bring projected playing time up because when you look at Cervelli's projection, it shows some promise. He lacks power, but his on-base percentage is pretty good. Indeed, his projected wOBA is similar to Russell Martin's. This however does not mean we should equate Cervelli's and Martins's projection. Martin has proven he can put up such numbers over the course of the season, while Cervelli has been a part-timer. Marcels itself tells you this, in the Reliability column.

Let's however look at optimistic side and speculate a bit. Let's suppose the projection reflects Cervelli's true talent. Let's further suppose that he can hold up physically as a regular catcher. If we give Cervelli 490 PAs and Stewart 150, Yankee catchers move from a below-average wOBA to .307 wOBA - around league average. They also would generate about 5 more batting runs - if we follow the traditional sabermetric convention of 10 runs equating to a win, that gives the Yankees a 1/2 win.

Let's not take this 1/2 win measure too literally. On an individual basis, a player whose skills are measured as being a 1/2-game better than another player's could impact several games. It's a matter of random timing as to whether a few walks help win games or go for naught.

Cervelli himself provides a perfect example. In 2012, he only had 3 PAs, and so according to this sabermetric convention, Cervelli contributed to 0 wins. However, in the next-to-last game of the season, Cervelli drew a 2-out, 12th-inning walk, and eventually came around to score the game-winning run. This was a huge win, as it preserved a 1-game lead over the Orioles.

If Stewart had been hitting, the probability of him getting on base would have been around 4% lower than the probability of Cervelli getting on base. We'll never know whether last season's huge walk was one of those plate appearances where Cervelli's skill advantage came into play.

But for 2013, one perspective is that if Cervelli is indeed 4% more likely to get on base than Stewart, over 490 PAs Cervelli would reach base about 20 more times than Stewart. That could quite possibly flip a few games to the Yankees.