The World Turned Upside Down

When the Redcoats walked off the field after losing the Revolutionary War to George Washington's Yankees, the British army played a tune called  "The World Turn'd Upside Down".

That song title conveys the cognitive dissonance I have been experiencing since reading this shocking headline:

    Pirates Agree To Terms With Russell Martin


The Pirates?

Yankees and Blue Jays Projections, and the Difference Swisher Makes

Last month Newsday reported the following spin from a Yankee official regarding Hal Steinbrenner's goal of getting the payroll under $189 million by 2014.

   "A person with knowledge of the team’s thinking said Friday that although the intent still is to try to get to that threshold [of $189 million], the Yankees will not do so if it comes at the expense of fielding a contender. 'Providing a championship team' will take precedence.'

The 2013 AL East will likely be a close race, similar to 2012. 2013 might even be more challenging than 2012, given how the Blue Jays have retooled and the Red Sox have the potential to do so. A player here or there may make the difference between winning the division versus merely getting in the wildcard game or even just going hunting and fishing when the regular season ends.

Thus a test of the Yankee front office's sincerity about 'providing a championship team' is how it handles Nick Swisher's free agency.

In years past, the Yankees would either be pursuing Swisher or replacing him with Josh Hamilton. But this year the media has been reporting that Swisher is a goner because of Hal's austerity stance, and that whomever replaces him cannot have multi-year contract of significant salary. The Yankees could accomplish this either by trading for a good young player such as Alex Gordon, or by signing mediocre players who cannot command much on the market. And unless Cashman fleeces someone, I don't see the trade route as a realistic option

So let's do a thought-experiment to see what this austerity-vs.-Swisher decision means. The Blue Jays have made a lot of noise with their offseason additions, so let's compare the projected Blue Jays offense to that of the Yankees with and without Swisher.

We'll compare using 2013 projections calculated with the Marcels algorithm. What we'll do is compare the projected batting runs of the 2 teams, and see the degree to which Swisher makes a difference.

First, here are some 2013 projections for Toronto's expected lineup and major substitutes:

Hitter	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BRs
Arencibia, J.P.	435	399	94	19	2	20	29	3	1	.236	.290	.444	.311	51
Bautista, Jose	465	387	102	19	1	31	70	7	2	.264	.381	.558	.391	82
Bonifacio, Emilio	401	357	99	13	5	4	35	26	4	.277	.341	.375	.321	48
Cabrera, Melky	521	478	145	28	6	12	35	12	5	.303	.349	.462	.343	73
Davis, Rajai	477	442	114	24	4	7	27	39	10	.258	.305	.378	.306	54
Encarnacion, Edwin	575	507	136	27	0	29	57	9	2	.268	.346	.493	.356	86
Izturis, Maicer	409	371	96	21	1	5	30	12	4	.259	.319	.361	.300	43
Lawrie, Brett	485	439	124	24	4	14	36	13	6	.282	.342	.451	.340	65
Lind, Adam	431	396	98	17	2	17	29	2	1	.247	.299	.429	.310	50
Rasmus, Colby	565	505	123	24	5	20	51	7	4	.244	.314	.430	.315	68
Reyes, Jose	617	563	165	31	11	11	46	33	8	.293	.345	.446	.340	86
Total	5381	4844	1296	247	41	170	445	163	47	.268	.331	.441	.332	706

The Yankees' roster is more of a work in progress, so we'll assume they resign Russell Martin and Eric Chavez. In this phase of our thought-experiment, we'll go the austerity route in right field, replacing Swisher with a combination of Raul Ibanez, Reed Johnson and Scott Hairston (with Ibanez and Hairston also getting some DH time). There are other players we could work in here. But these guys are representative example of the types of players in the bargain bin of the free agent market.

Hitter	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BRs
Cano, Robinson	617	560	169	39	3	27	46	5	2	.302	.360	.527	.369	100
Chavez, Eric	374	337	88	16	1	12	31	2	1	.261	.322	.421	.316	45
Gardner, Brett	277	240	64	10	3	4	30	19	5	.267	.354	.383	.329	35
Granderson, Curtis	611	533	130	20	6	34	65	14	4	.244	.330	.495	.352	88
Hairston, Scott	414	381	93	21	2	17	28	7	2	.244	.300	.444	.320	51
Ibanez, Raul	470	429	104	23	2	16	36	3	1	.242	.302	.417	.306	54
Jeter, Derek	631	576	163	26	2	11	44	12	4	.283	.338	.392	.319	74
Johnson, Reed	371	343	94	20	3	6	16	4	2	.274	.320	.402	.311	42
Martin, Russell	490	429	100	18	0	17	51	8	2	.233	.322	.394	.313	57
Rodriguez, Alex	507	449	118	21	1	19	47	8	2	.263	.337	.441	.337	67
Teixeira, Mark	530	459	114	24	1	26	56	3	1	.248	.336	.475	.346	74
Total	5292	4736	1237	238	24	189	450	85	26	.261	.330	.441	.331	687

The Yankees and Jays project to be similar so far, with the Jays have a slight advantage.

The teams have different projected PAs so far, so we can't yet compare batting runs. However, the teams will have other bench players, and pitchers will get a few PAs. In 2012, AL teams averaged 6151 PAs, 23 of which were from pitchers. So what I did to make up the difference between the above projected team totals and the remaining PAs is the following back-of-the-envelope method:

• Prorated 2012 AL pitchers' batting stats to 23 PAs. (In 2012, AL pitchers had a slash line of .122/.143/.129.)
• Subtracted 23 from the total PAs from the team's total PAs in the above tables of player projections - let's call the remainder the remaining PAs.
• Prorated the batting stats of 2012 non-pitchers with less than 300 PAs against the remaining PAs. (In 2012, hitters with less than 300 PAs had a slash line of .232/.294/.356. Jayson Nix is a perfect example of this type of player.)
• Calculated each team's totals by summing up the totals from the team's projection table and the prorated stats just described.

The following table shows the resulting team totals. The Blue Jays' slight advantage translates to 9 batting runs. If one applies the convention that 10 team runs equates to a win, the Blue Jays offense projects to be about a win better than the Yankees'.

Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BRs
Jays	6151	5539	1455	278	45	185	501	174	51	.263	.326	.429	.325	776
Yankees	6151	5512	1415	272	28	206	512	98	31	.257	.325	.428	.323	765

Let's finish this thought experiment by looking at the offseason from the classical Yankee approach: going all-in for another ring. In this scenario, instead of signing Hairston to a one-year deal, the Yankees sign Swisher to a multi-year deal, and otherwise make the same moves described earlier. First, let's compare Swisher's 2013 projection to Hairston's:

Hitter	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BRs
Hairston, Scott	414	381	93	21	2	17	28	88	1	.244	.300	.444	.320	51
Swisher, Nick	576	500	133	29	1	23	66	3	2	.266	.353	.466	.351	82

Swisher projects to slug for a bit more power, to get on base much more, and to have more plate appearances. The latter emphasizes another Swisher strength, which is that he is a switch-hitter, while Hairston's best suited to a platoon role.

Now let's update the total projected team stats with Swisher instead of Hairston:

Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BRs
Jays	6151	5539	1455	278	45	185	501	174	51	0.263	0.326	0.429	0.325	776
Yankees	6151	5484	1421	274	26	209	539	91	30	0.259	0.33	0.433	0.327	781

Swisher bumps up the team totals to 781 batting runs, and the Yankee offense now projects to be 1/2 win better than the Blue Jays.  Swisher improves the Yankees' odds of winning a close division race.

The 2013 the season will not play out literally as projected by Marcels and my November 25th roster speculations. Some players will do better, some worse, injuries will occur, etc. Pitching, defense, and luck will also come into play. Some team may do a better job on acquiring role players. And it's certainly possible that the Yankees find a bargain; for example, they could sign Ichiro and have him turn out to be the rejuvenated player of the last part of 2012, not the pale shadow of the prior 1.5 years.

However it plays out, the probability is that in a tough division race, the Yankees are more likely to secure a slot in the ALDS with Nick Swisher in right-field than with a player purchased on clearance.

Note: The "official" Marcels 2013 projections have not been published. These projections are calculated using a program I wrote to implement the Marcels algorithm (documented here).

Nick Swisher and Right Field Candidates' Marcels Projections

Every single media account has indicated Nick Swisher's Yankee career is over. He perhaps will be the first victim of  Hal Steinbrenner's goal to come in first place - on Newsweek's list of the greediest people ever.

This is too bad - if the Yankees were focused on winning, the only way they would be considering not signing Swisher is if they were going to sign Josh Hamilton!

If you think that is an exaggeration, consider the following table. This lists projected 2013 stats for various outfielders; the projections were calculated using the Marcels algorithm. Most of the outfielders listed are free agents; these are the guys marked with asterisks. A few have been mentioned in trade speculation, and Bautista, Markakis, and Joyce are listed to show who's in right for AL East competitors:

Hitter	Age	PA	AB	H	HR	BB	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA	RCs
Bautista, Jose	32	465	387	102	31	70	7	2	.264	.381	.558	.391	82
Hamilton, Josh*	32	572	514	152	32	46	8	2	.296	.354	.554	.374	101
Upton, Justin	25	581	511	146	21	56	17	7	.286	.362	.479	.358	87
Gordon, Alex	29	629	559	159	17	62	11	6	.284	.358	.460	.351	91
Swisher, Nick*	32	576	500	133	23	66	3	2	.266	.353	.466	.351	82
Choo, Shin-Soo	30	579	506	140	16	61	18	6	.277	.364	.441	.350	80
Cabrera, Melky*	28	521	478	145	12	35	12	5	.303	.349	.462	.343	78
Joyce, Matt	28	483	421	109	18	52	8	2	.259	.344	.458	.341	66
Markakis, Nick	29	507	454	130	12	45	6	2	.286	.353	.434	.338	69
Victorino, Shane*	32	592	531	138	15	48	27	4	.260	.327	.426	.330	76
Hunter, Tori*	37	557	504	138	18	44	7	5	.274	.336	.433	.330	72
Upton, B.J.*	28	580	518	127	22	53	30	7	.245	.315	.438	.328	74
Reddick, Josh	26	564	513	131	22	44	8	2	.255	.314	.456	.326	74
Jones, Andruw*	36	357	313	70	17	38	4	1	.224	.314	.431	.323	42
Ross, Cody*	32	510	460	118	17	41	5	2	.257	.320	.433	.322	63
Pagan, Angel*	31	583	532	146	9	43	28	6	.274	.328	.410	.321	74
Hairston, Scott*	33	414	381	93	17	28	7	2	.244	.300	.444	.320	50
Young, Delmon*	27	554	517	143	17	26	3	2	.277	.314	.433	.319	69
Dickerson, Chris	31	214	192	48	6	16	8	1	.250	.311	.396	.309	24
Ibanez, Raul*	41	470	429	104	16	36	3	1	.242	.302	.417	.306	54
Suzuki, Ichiro*	39	604	567	155	7	30	28	6	.273	.311	.365	.293	67
Rivera, Juan*	34	422	385	95	11	29	3	3	.247	.301	.384	.293	44

In looking at this list, unless the Yankees are planning to sign Hamilton, there is no other free agent worth signing as a regular right-fielder, now that Melky Cabrera is off the board. (Some of these guys - Raul, Ichiro, Hairston - are worth signing for DH/depth.)

If Alex Gordon could be sanely obtained in a trade, as speculated upon in an interesting post on An A-Blog for A-Rod, he would perhaps make sense in terms of making the team a bit younger; however, the Yankees likely would have to give up so much for Gordon that I doubt the team overall would be improved. And even then, you'd be replacing a switch-hitter with a lefty hitter, exacerbating the Yankees' relative weakness against southpaws.

There may be other, less obvious, options for right field that would improve the team. But after surveying the field, signing Swisher seems a no-brainer.


Note: Runs Created (RCs) were calculated using the Stolen Base method.

Hal Steinbrenner's Biological Father Revealed

It's been clear for awhile that Hal Steinbrenner cannot possibly be George Steinbrenner's biological son.

George was a sportsman who was driven to win. His drive also made him a great businessman; George bought the floundering franchise for $10 million in 1973, and now it's worth well over a billion. That growth occurred solely because George recreated the Yankee championship brand; if he had run the team on a spreadsheets-and-budget basis, they would just be another baseball team with a much lesser value. In other words, they would be the Mets.

Hal however has revealed himself as greedhead of epic proportions, with no interest in winning.

Gutty Gritty Yankees' investigative wing thus has been looking into ancestry records and other evidence to find out the true story of Hal's origins. We've been looking at likely descendants of a guy who must be one of Hal's ancestors: the murderer of the goose with the golden egg. Using that strategy, we have ruled out obvious suspects such as Bernie Madoff, Michael Milken, and Gordon Gekko.

But we have persevered, and recently had a break: a friend who chauffeurs for a limo service was stiffed by Hal with a chintzy 5-dollar tip. Our friend handed the five-spot to us, which allowed us to conduct some DNA testing.

So now we know, with 99.9% certainty, that Hal's biological father is a Bedford Falls, NY slumlord and banker named Henry F. Potter (shown below, lower left).

Time-traveler Jimmy Stewart tells Henry Potter that his greedy douchebag son should sign Nick Swisher.

A-Rod HR Watch: 2012 Edition

This blog has periodically examined the probability of whether A-Rod's 2012 HR performance prove he is a player in serious decline. The last time we did this was in August, when A-Rod was on the disabled list. This post will examine the final results of the season.

If you haven't read the previous posts in this series, we have been using the binomial distribution to gauge the likelihood that A-Rod's 2012 performance would occur for a hitter whose true talent level is a HR/AB ratio of 6.2%. 6.2% is used because that was A-Rod's HR rate in 2009-2010, when he hit 30 HRs each year (in less than full seasons).

In 2012, A-Rod ended up with 18 HRs in 463 ABs, for a 3.89% HR/AB ratio. 18 HRs is below the expected range of a player with a 6.2% HR/AB ratio: the binomial distribution indicates that 95% of the time, a player with a talent level corresponding to A-Rod's 2009-2010 performance should have hit somewhere in the range of 20-38 HRs.

So where does A-Rod stand according to this method? The binomial distribution indicates there is a 1.9% probability that A-Rod's true talent level is a 6.2% HR/AB ratio despite his poor 2012 performance. In other words, the binomial distribution indicates there is a 1/20 chance that A-Rod is still really a slugger.

Obviously 1/20 are poor odds. And since A-Rod's under contract for 5 years at an average of $22,800,000 (plus some possible bonus money), the question of whether or not A-Rod can still be a middle-of-the-order hitter is critical to the Yankees' success for the foreseeable future.

I don't want to pretend the numbers are other than they are and make a fool of myself a la the comical escapades of math-phobic right-wing partisans regarding the Presidential election. However, since there has been plenty of understandable fork-sticking into A-Rod, I want to explore the alternate perspective, which is that 1/20 odds are not astronomical. So let's look at a couple of historical precedents for aging players:

• In 2010 (and the first part of 2011), people were sticking a fork in Derek Jeter's career. A 36-year-old Jeter hit .270 in 2010, well below his then-career average of .317. In 2011-2012, Jeter rebounded to hit .308. So let's use .308 as a measure of Jeter's true talent level in 2010. The odds of Jeter hitting .270 despite having a .308 talent level, according to the binomial distribution, were 1.8% - similar to A-Rod's.
• Darrell Evans had an unusual aging pattern. In 1981-1982, at ages 34-35, his power seemed to slightly decline - he hit 28 HRs in 882 ABs for a HR/AB ratio of 3.41%. Over the next 5 years, he slugged 149 HRs in 2435 ABs, for a 6.12% HR/AB ratio. If we use 6.12% as Evans' true talent level, the odds of his 1981-1982 performance were 0.03% - in other words, the odds were 3 out of 10,000!

Evans and Jeter were exceptions to the rule; their precedents do not make it likely that A-Rod will bounce back and hit, say, 150 HRs over the next 5 years. The odds are that he won't; however, the point is rather it should not be shocking if he does.