Hallucinating, Confusion, and Loss of Consciousness

Brian Cashman's confirmation that Joe Girardi actually "made a special call to the public address announcer... to request that Alex Rodriguez not be named when Girardi pinch-hit Eric Chavez for A-Rod" raises a couple of intellectually stimulating questions:

• WTF was Girardi thinking? Did he think no one was going to notice A-Rod was being pinch-hit for?
• WTF was Brian Cashman thinking when he confirmed this story?

After much pondering, the best explanation is that Yankees management has some sort of Oxycontin problem. Oxycontin's side effects include hallucinating, confusion, and loss of consciousness. Now I don't want to stereotype - most Oxycontin users would not do something as stupid as Girardi and Cashman have teamed up to do here. However, if there's a better explanation of this debacle than hallucinating, confusion, and loss of consciousness, please let me know.

ALCS and Fielding

The Yankees poor hitting in the ALCS has understandably drawn a lot of attention. However, merely focusing on batting stats ignores a genuine difference-maker in the series: fielding.

The Yankees survived their poor hitting in the ALDS by supporting the excellent pitching with solid defense. The hitting was similarly poor and the pitching was similarly good in the ALCS. However, in each game against the Tigers, the Yankees failed to make plays that they should have made, which led to critical runs. These misplays cost the Yankees dearly:

• Game 1: In the 12th inning, Swisher missed Delmon Young's line drive, which knocked in the go-ahead run. This was scored as a double, but Swisher should have caught it. 
• Game 2: In the 7th inning, Delmon Young hit a double-play ground ball; however, Cano was not able to get the ball out of his glove, giving the Tigers a 1-0 lead.
• Game 3: 2 plays in the 5th inning gave the Tigers the game's second run:
  • Chavez made an error allowing Quintin Berry to reach base.
  • Granderson then misplayed Cabrera's fly ball to deep center; Granderson seemed to get a poor jump on a ball he could and should have caught. This scored Berry.
• Game 4: 2 big early errors not only gave Detroit its first 2 runs, but also caused the struggling CC Sabathia to expend 1-2 innings of extra pitches:
  • In the first inning, Chavez misplayed a ground ball by Infante into an infield hit. Infante eventually came around to score the game's first run.
  • In the third inning, Teixeira missed an inning-ending ground ball, instead leaving the bases loaded. The game's 2nd run eventually scored on a weak ground ball.

Cano's Freaky Hot and Cold Streaks

Robinson Cano went 3-for 40 in the postseason; that works out to a batting average of .075. .075! What are the odds of a good hitter like Cano having such a cold streak?

The binomial distribution indicates the probability of Cano going 3-40 (or worse) is 0.00048 - approximately 2084-1 odds.

But that is not the most improbable streak Cano was on in the last month. What I mean is that Cano closed the regular season by going 24-39; that works out to a .615 batting average.

The probability of going 24-39 (or better) is 0.00006 - approximately 16558-1 odds.

In terms of explaining how this could happen, "That's baseball Susan" is all that comes to mind.

To confirm how rare both of these streaks are, I checked my play-by-play database (which goes thru 2011). According to that:

• Cano had never gone 24-39. The best batting average Cano had ever had in 39 ABs was .538 - 21 hits.
• Cano had never gone 3-40. The worst batting average Cano had ever had in 40 ABs was .100- 4 hits.

So, to summarize, Cano closed out the regular season with a hot streak that has a 1 out of 16558 chance of occurring. He then immediately went on a cold streak that has a 1 out of 2084 chance of occurring.

That's baseball Susan.

Of course, like most stats involving hot and cold streaks, it depends upon how you slice them up. If you combine these 2 streaks, Cano has gone 27-79 since September 25, for a .342 batting average. The odds of Cano hitting .342 or better for 79 ABs are a mere 1 out of 3.6.

Finally, this perhaps does not need stating, but the emotional state of some observers makes me feel it necessary to clarify: the fact that Cano was hot in the end of the regular season and cold in the playoffs does not suggest Cano is a choker. Apart from these being small sample sizes, remember that those regular-season games were crucial - if Cano had played poorly, the Yankees might not have won the division and thus may never have advanced to the ALCS.

Technical note: I used .305 as the probability of Cano getting a hit in a given at-bat, because his career average is .305 including both the regular- and post-season.

Hope Springs Eternal (As Long as You Win the Elimination Games)

There's now about a 5-6% chance of the Yankees winning 4 straight in the ALCS; RLYW has a nice breakdown of the odds. Obviously those are not great odds, but 5-6% is hardly in the realm of the miraculous.

Having Sabathia, Pettitte, Kuroda, and Sabathia lined up gives the Yankees an opportunity to cash in on those odds. And these series can turn quickly: if CC can win tomorrow, then the Yanks are Andy Pettitte start away from getting this series to a Game 6 on Saturday night in the Bronx.

Yankee Matchups Against Verlander

Every Yankee fan, me included, has thought about what to do with the slumping lineup for game 3. I've read and heard a wide range of opinions - someone even mentioned benching Robbie Cano. The only opinion I have not heard is that Joe Girardi should stand pat with the regulars.

But how does one go about making such difficult decisions? Since that's a large topic, tonight let's just play around with one possible factor, which is how the Yankees have matched up against Verlander.

Announcers and media folks hump these matchup stats all the time. For example, Brett Gardner's has been mentiond a lot as a game 3 possibility, with justification that in his career he's gone 5 for 11, with three walks, against Verlander.

However, as Tom Tango and his co-authors of The Book have demonstrated, the small sample sizes of such matchup stats render them of little meaning in terms of predicting performance.

To see how unreliable matchup stats are, the following table lists the matchup stats of Yankee batters against Verlander. The table shows Batting Average, On-Base-Percentage, and Slugging Percentage for each active Yankee who had at least 5 plate appearances against Verlander before 2011 and also faced him this season (stats from baseball-reference.com). The pre-2012 stats are in black, while the 2012 stats are in green:

Yankee	PA (pre-2012)	PA (2012)	BA (pre-2012)	BA (2012)	OBP (pre-2012)	OBP (2012)	SLG (pre-2012)	SLG (2012)
Alex Rodriguez	30	7	0.167	0.667	0.333	0.714	0.333	1.667
Curtis Granderson	12	11	0.200	0.200	0.333	0.273	0.700	0.400
Derek Jeter	38	11	0.364	0.364	0.447	0.364	0.394	0.636
Eric Chavez	15	10	0.200	0.600	0.200	0.600	0.400	0.800
Ichiro Suzuki	50	7	0.333	0.143	0.360	0.143	0.458	0.143
Mark Teixeira	31	10	0.115	0.000	0.258	0.000	0.231	0.000
Nick Swisher	58	10	0.154	0.333	0.241	0.400	0.365	0.556
Raul Ibanez	24	10	0.150	0.000	0.250	0.100	0.200	0.000
Robinson Cano	30	10	0.143	0.300	0.200	0.300	0.179	0.500
Russell Martin	8	8	0.286	0.429	0.375	0.500	0.286	0.857

As you can see, the pre-2012 stats do not correlate with the 2012 stats. For example, prior to 2012 Verlander owned A-Rod; in 2012 so far, A-Rod has owned Verlander. Ichiro is the opposite. If these matchup stats were as meaningful as announcers often make them out to be, the 2012 and pre-2012 stats should not differ so much.

So while there may be an argument for playing Gardner, it should not be made primarily on the basis of his matchup stats against Verlander.

One good thing about these stats is that it puts numbers to the fact that Verlander is human, not some unbeatable robot. Even though Verlander dominated these hitters in the past, in 2012 they hit Verlander well enough to have beaten him twice. This to me is the most interesting point to be drawn from these numbers.

Perspective

Losing Derek Jeter for the season, losing the first 2 games of the ALCS, scoring in only 1 of 21 innings, and having to face Justin Verlander in Game 3 - this is not exactly the way one hoped this ALCS would start.

However, the fan overreaction, as exemplified in various vitriolic comments, struck me as a bit much. There are worse baseball fates than being down 2-0 in the ALCS; if you don't think so, consider the plight of, say, Mets fans.

Yes, today's loss was dreary. Yes, watching Curtis Kingman Granderson and Friends' predictable whiffs on pitches nowhere near the strike zone at times drove me to a state of near-rage. But I take baseball solace in this:

   The New York Yankees just gave us a week of dramatic baseball games. They survived a week of dreadful offense, won the ALDS, and are still playing in mid-October. They have an opportunity to go to the World Series with a good week.  It is awesome to have some baseball to look forward to.

Chavez and A-Rod

The slumping third baseman has struck out in over 50% of his playoff plate appearances this post-season.

So why does Joe Girardi continue to pinch hit Eric Chavez for A-Rod? More specifically, why did he do so last night?

Here are both of their postseason stats to date:

Hitter	AB	PA	R	H	D	T	HR	RBI	SO	BB	BA	SLG	OBP
Chavez	11	11	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	0	.000	.000	.000
A-Rod	19	21	1	2	0	0	0	0	10	2	.105	.105	.190

Before going further, let's put this critique in context; while I am criticizing Girardi's moves, his decisions are not the main reason the Tigers beat the Yankees in game 1 of the ALCS. Various Tigers deserve credit; various Yankees deserve blame, most notably Swisher's atrocious fielding in RF. Give Bud Selig's incompetence an assist too; if MLB made use of replay technology instead of burying its head in the sand, umpire Rob Drake's blown call in the 2nd inning would have been overturned, giving the Yankees a run and an opportunity for more. If Girardi made the decisions I would have preferred, there's no guarantee the Yankees would have won. That being said, Girardi's decisions on A-Rod and Chavez were questionable.

Now I understood why Girardi pinch-hit the hot Ibanez for A-Rod in game 3 of the ALDS. I understood the benching against a righty pitcher in game 5 of the ALDS. A-Rod's ongoing slump merits such moves.

However, I just did not understand how Girardi used these guys in game 1 of the ALCS; his decisions struck me as a combination of indecisiveness and overmanaging. What I mean is that Girardi started A-Rod against Doug Fister, a righty. A-Rod's first at-bat was good - he hit the ball hard up the middle, but Jhonny Peralta's good play robbed him of a 2-RBI single. A-Rod's next 2 ABs were unproductive: grounding into a DP in the 3rd, and a critical strikeout with runners on 2nd and 3rd and no outs in the 6th.

Now it's hard to determine how much blame goes to A-Rod here and how much credit to give Doug Fister, who also whiffed Granderson and Martin in the crucial 6th inning, and in general pitched well. It's not as though everyone but A-Rod was tearing it up against Fister.

So in the 8th inning, Girardi pinch hit Chavez for A-Rod when Jim Leyland brought in another righty pitcher. Here's where Girardi's strategy strikes me as flawed. Now if Girardi had just started Chavez in place of A-Rod for lefty-righty platoon reasons, no one could argue; A-Rod's certainly looked recently against righties, and Chavez is a nice option, despite his ugly playoff stats to date.  But the moves to start A-Rod against a righty and then pinch-hit for him against a righty doesn't seem to make sense for 2 reasons:

• If he so lacks confidence in A-Rod's ability to hit righties, then why did he give A-Rod three plate appearances against a righty?
• Girardi's flip-flopping wasted a precious bench player.

The latter point perhaps deserves more explanation. If Girardi had started Chavez, A-Rod would have been in reserve as a pinch hitter, and could have been deployed later in the game. This could have mattered in the bottom of the 12th, where Detroit was able to match up lefty Drew Smyly against lefties Chavez and Gardner. If A-Rod bats for Chavez there, then either you get a platoon advantage on that at-bat, or you force Jim Leyland to bring in a righty, which then if nothing else gives Gardner an advantage.

Derek Jeter's Focus

What I love about Derek Jeter is that after he fractured his ankle, he retained the presence of mind to roll the ball over to Robinson Cano. Despite the excruciating pain he was clearly experiencing, Derek remained aware that there was a runner on third base who might take off and score if he kept rolling around, or if the ball rolled away.

That is Derek Jeter.

Tyler Kepner's Fictional A-Rod

Tyler Kepner's article today is a classic case of a writer spinning facts to fit a preconceived storyline.

Kepner makes this assertion:

   "Rodriguez did not directly answer when asked if he were unhappy with Girardi."

He then quotes A-Rod's response to the question:

  "It’s never about Joe. I always have to look in the mirror and do what I can do to do the best I can."

Even by the low standards to which I hold the Yankee beat writers, this is truly bizarre. A-Rod says in the plainest English that he takes responsibility for his performance, and does not blame Girardi. But Kepner spins this as merely an evasive answer.


But I was expecting this type of A-Rod-hating BS, because the article makes clear from the very beginning that Kepner is just going to ignore whatever A-Rod says. What I mean is that the article begins with this quote from A-Rod:

   "I keep telling you guys this is not a story about one person."

Kepner's very next sentence is this, which spins A-Rod's answer as being dishonest:

   "As usual, there was both truth and fiction in Rodriguez’s words."

The reality is that A-Rod has behaved like the consummate team player - he hasn't complained or made an issue out of it, he hasn't sulked, or done any of the things we've often see player say and do when pinch-hit for or benched. A-Rod no doubt feels some pain; but he clearly has decided he will wait for an opportunity to let his bat do some talking, which is the best attitude a player can have in such situations.

But instead of giving A-Rod credit - or at least letting A-Rod's words speak for themselves sans distortion - Kepner felt the need to call A-Rod an evasive phony who probably is nursing a deep personal grudge against Girardi.

Mea Culpa

I humbly apologize to the thoughtful and insightful individual whom I derided in yesterday's post:

   "...the lunatic fringe has additional ideas: ...there was a WFAN caller who wanted Girardi to bat Ibanez third and to bench A-Rod in favor of Eric Chavez. I wonder if this is the same genius who called "911 to ask for female deputies to respond to his home for sexual gratification." 7 times!"

After all, the Yankees won with Chavez at third, Ibanez batting third, and A-Rod on the bench.

Fans Gone Wild: A-Rod's Spot in the Batting Lineup

The obsession over A-Rod's position in the batting order cracks me up.

This is because the A-Rod haters have expressed such certitude about how he needs to be moved lower. But here is my question: Who else exactly is such a no-brainer to be batting 3rd, and why?

Following the principle that the number 3 hitter should be your best overall hitter, the only obvious candidates are Jeter, Cano, and perhaps Ichiro. However, they happen to be busy batting first, second, and cleanup.

I suppose you could make Cano the #3 hitter; that argument carries some weight, because it might give him an extra at-bat in a game. But right now, with Cano so hot, it's the hitter behind Cano that is the most important lineup decision: who is either going to force Showalter to pitch to Cano, or make Showalter pay for pitching around Cano?

Anyway, the problem is that if you move Cano up to the 3rd spot, you probably have to flip-flop Ichiro and Jeter. Which is not unreasonable. However, I suspect Girardi may not want to make any wholesale changes to a lineup that's hit well over the last month, and thus will leave Jeter, Ichiro, and Cano where they are.

So who else is an option as the third hitter in the Yankee lineup?

You probably shouldn't bat Granderson third - he makes too many outs, plus you would then be stacking 3 straight lefties.

One could make a reasonable argument for batting Swisher or Teixeira third. However, neither of them has exactly hit with the consistency of a #3 hitter, so it's hardly a no-brainer.

You would think this exhausts the options. Of course the lunatic fringe has additional ideas: for example, my sister told me there was a WFAN caller who wanted Girardi to bat Ibanez third and to bench A-Rod in favor of Eric Chavez. I wonder if this is the same genius who called "911 to ask for female deputies to respond to his home for sexual gratification." 7 times!

Now if Girardi moves A-Rod to a lower spot in the order, I don't think it's a huge deal or a mistake. Rather, it's the absolute certainty of the A-Rod haters that I find comical - and not comical in a kind way, but rather in the way I felt after reading about the guy who texted a cop when looking for partners in a meth purchase.

Yankee Stats Down the Stretch

On September 4 2012 the Yankees once-10-game lead evaporated after a loss to the Rays. This was the third straight series they had lost - things looked dismal, comparisons to the Titanic were occurring, etc.

The Yankees responded with a 19-8 record. That is a  .704 winning percentage; the same winning percentage as the 1998 Yankees. So I thought it would fun to look at the stats from September 5 on to see what drove the team to have such a great finish

Let's start by examining total runs scored and runs allowed in the 27 games after September 4:

• Yankee pitchers allowed 109 runs - 4.04 runs per game; their ERA was 3.84. Overall in 2012, the Yankees allowed 4.12 runs per game, with a 3.86 ERA. So the team didn't pitch any differently down the stretch than during the rest of the season.
• Yankee hitters scored 162 runs - 6 runs per game. Overall in 2012, the team scored 4.96 runs per game.

This means it was the combination of the pitchers continuing to pitch above-league-average and the hitters going above-and-beyond that won the AL East. In other words, the collective tear of the team's hitters was largely why the Yankees inched out the Orioles.

The difference supplied by the hitters is perhaps best expressed by applying the Pythagorean formula, which predicts that a team scoring 162 runs and allowing 109 runs should go 19-8; in this case, exactly what the Yankees did.

Now let's suppose the team had instead scored its overall average of 4.96 runs per game. That would have resulted in 134 runs; the Pythagorean formula predicts a team scoring 134 runs and allowing 109 should have a 16-11 record. If things had played out that way, the Orioles would have won the East and the Yankees would have been playing the Rangers last night.

So, let's drill down further and look at the hitters - here are their stats from September 5 on:

Hitter	PA	R	H	D	T	HR	RBI	BB	BA	SLG	OBP
Jeter, Derek	129	15	37	4	0	1	12	10	.316	.376	.370
Cano, Robinson	125	24	39	10	0	4	21	15	.361	.565	.440
Rodriguez, Alex	121	19	27	3	0	3	13	13	.262	.379	.347
Swisher, Nick	121	13	29	6	0	4	16	20	.293	.475	.417
Granderson, Curtis	111	19	22	3	1	9	27	10	.224	.551	.288
Suzuki, Ichiro	101	19	37	7	0	2	13	2	.389	.526	.398
Martin, Russell	91	15	21	4	0	7	16	9	.263	.575	.344
Ibanez, Raul	55	8	15	3	0	4	9	5	.306	.612	.382
Chavez, Eric	46	6	9	2	0	3	4	8	.237	.526	.370
Nix, Jayson	38	2	5	2	0	0	2	3	.161	.226	.235
Nunez, Eduardo	38	6	10	2	0	1	5	1	.286	.429	.289
Jones, Andruw	33	3	4	0	0	1	3	6	.167	.292	.364
Pearce, Steve	22	4	3	0	0	1	4	4	.167	.333	.318
Stewart, Chris	22	0	3	1	0	0	1	6	.188	.250	.409
Teixeira, Mark	20	1	2	1	0	1	3	3	.125	.375	.250
McGehee, Casey	12	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000	.000	.167
Dickerson, Chris	9	3	2	0	0	1	3	2	.286	.714	.444
Gardner, Brett	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	.333	.333	.333
Cervelli, Francisco	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.500
Mesa, Melky	2	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	.500	.500	.500

Cano, Swisher, Granderson, Ichiro, Martin, and Ibanez all got hot at the same time. All these guys hitting over their seasonal averages is what bumped up the Yankees run-scoring.

An additional factor is that other than Andruw Jones, no one slumped. Jeter was his usual consistent self, and Chavez and Nunez provided some thump from the bench. A-Rod's power numbers were mediocre; but he did not lose his good eye, and thus kept getting on base for Robinson Cano.

Finally, I thought it would be fun to prorate these stats out to what they would be over a full season.

Braves Fans Respond to Garbage with Garbage

As a fan and a paying customer, I've felt ripped off for years by MLB's incompetent quality assurance. Umpires make mistakes, as we all do. However, video replay has the ability to improve the quality of the product, to eliminate terrible, aggravating calls. Unfortunately, Bud Selig has held baseball back in his usual indifference to the best interests of the game, which is why baseball lacks a good replay system.

So, while I know I am supposed to go "tut tut" about the Braves fans throwing crap on the field after umpire Sam Holbrook's historic botched call, that would be dishonest. Because what I really feel is that this ugliness is a valid protest against being ripped off by MLB.

 

What do you expect from a sport that still employs C.B. Bucknor?!

Image Source: http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2012/1005/mlb_g_trash_mb_300.jpg

Gutty Gritty Ibanez

This blog has made cutting comments about Raul Ibanez.  When the Yankees signed him, I expected him to fade the way Andruw Jones faded.

But, fortunately, Mr. Ibanez has proven this blog wrong. He has been a professional hitter, and  provided the Yankees with 3 particularly huge hits down the stretch: the 2-run shot on September 22 that tied the game in the bottom of the 13th inning, the 2-run shot that tied tonight's game in the 9th, and the 13th-inning walkoff single.

Now Ibanez has not been great; his .239/.306/.454 slash line is OK for a platoon left fielder/DH. However, he has been a serviceable contributor, and often in baseball it is the serviceable players who give us the moments of a baseball season we remember years afterwards.

That is the sort of moment Raul Ibanez gave Yankee fans tonight when he lined one into the right-field seats.

Girardi and Nunez

In the last few days Joe Girardi has used Eduardo Nunez in a couple of ways that I like a lot:

• Using Nunez as a pinch-hitter/DH instead of the Ghost of Andruw Jones. On Sunday he used Nunez as a pinch hitter for Eric Chavez. This made me happy: when Toronto brought in a lefty reliever, I was expecting the usual move to Jones, following by the usual ensuing strikeout with Jones trying to pull a ball that is a foot outside. Tonight against Lester, Nunez is starting at DH.

• Not using Nunez in the field tonight, thus significantly reducing the probability that I might throw my remote control at the TV and suffer a shoulder tear. :)

Going to Nunez had good results during Sunday's comeback; Nunez ignited the 7th-inning rally with a pinch-hit single, and later drove in the go-ahead run with a sacrifice fly. Regardless of tonight's results, it is the right move; continuing to use Jones would just be the definition of insanity.