Mariano Rivera Threw a Wild Pitch

On Sunday Mariano Rivera threw a wild pitch, which made me feel a bit shocked. Since then I've felt nagged by the question of just how rare it was.

So, following is a table that lists the top 10 pitchers least likely to give up a wild pitch out of the 176 pitchers who have pitched at least 1000 innings since Mariano began his career since 1995. ("WP/9" means "Wild pitches per 9 innings"). Mariano ranks 7th amongst his peers contemporaries:

Pitcher	IP	SO	K/9	WP	WP/9
Quantrill, Paul	1015.3	607	5.38	4	0.035
Daal, Omar	1149.7	778	6.09	8	0.063
Reed, Rick	1296.3	835	5.80	11	0.076
Buehrle, Mark	2476.7	1396	5.07	21	0.076
Glavine, Tom	2891.0	1703	5.30	25	0.078
Francis, Jeff	1065.7	694	5.86	11	0.093
Castillo, Frank	1114.0	790	6.38	12	0.097
Rivera, Mariano	1211.3	1111	8.25	13	0.097
Moyer, Jamie	3019.3	1793	5.34	33	0.098
Maddux, Greg	3097.3	2081	6.05	34	0.099

What's unique about Mariano is that he is the only one of this group who is a power pitcher; the rest fall into the classification of "control artist". Mariano's K/9 of 8.25 is much more than anyone else's on this list.

Phil Rizzuto's Nearly Amputated Leg

In a previous post I referred to how Phil Rizzuto nearly had his leg amputated after he stepped into a gopher hole. This merits delving into, if you are interested in historical details, because while he did almost lose his leg, a recent biography - Scooter: The Biography of Phil Rizzuto (Carlo DeVito)  indicates that the Scooter told different versions of the story behind the injury.

Rizzuto's first professional season was in D ball, playing for the 1937 Bassett Furnituremakers. Early in the season, the injury occurred. The Scooter told 2 versions of the tale:

• For Joe Trimble's 1951 biography, Rizzuto told Trimble he got a charley-horse turning a double play.
• Later on, he told Yankees Magazine that he was running to first, stepped into a gopher hole, then felt something pop.

Either way, he played through the injury. Low-level minor league teams did not have trainers, and organizations did not apply modern medical practices for their prospects. So his manager just taped and massaged the leg so that the  Scooter could continue playing. This fiasco continued until a local umpire told Rizzuto he was seriously injured, which finally led to a doctor's visit.

It turned out a leg muscle had pulled apart, which the doctor said "happens maybe once in a million cases of strain." Worse, the delay in treatment had allowed the leg to become gangrenous, almost to the point where the leg needed amputation. Surgery needed to occur, without delay.

Rizzuto's words convey the severity of the operation:

"When I woke up 17 hours later...the doctor told me I would never play again. The doctor cut six inches off the muscle and tied the ends off to the other muscles. I have a big hole in my leg, and it extends from my knee to my thigh."

A few months later the Scooter was back on the field, helping lead the Furnituremakers to the Bi-State League pennant. Hopefully Joba will make a similarly speedy recovery; fortunately it sounds like Joba's leg did not get the infection that would have ended his career.

Bill Madden on Joba Chamberlain: Playing with Son Equal to Getting in Fistfight

Bill Madden's comments on Joba Chamberlain's freak accident reveal a level of self-righteous nastiness that is unpleasant, like a bad smell:

    "So the Joba Chamberlain star-crossed era with the Yankees will apparently have the same sad ending as the Brien Taylor saga. Call it dumb and dumber for two Yankee golden-arm pitchers who threw away their careers with off-the-field hijinks."

Brien Taylor ruined his arm in a fistfight. Joba's career is at risk because he slipped while playing with his son on a trampoline.

Only a person with both a lot of wind between his ears and an equally empty heart would equate the two incidents, or would characterize what happened to Joba "dumb" instead of freakishly bad luck.

Plus, it's horrible reporting to suggest to readers that the injury is definitely a career-ender. David Waldstein of the NY Times provides an excellent explanation of the medical issues. Apparently if the bone is infected Joba won't ever be able to run again, much less pitch; if an infection does not occur, he could return this season.

A more hopeful Yankee precedent than Brien Taylor is Phil Rizzuto, who in his rookie minor league season nearly had his leg amputated after stepping into a gopher hole.

Andy Pettitte Projections and Statistics of Older Pitchers

The blog's first attempt to find historical context for Andy Pettitte's comeback found that there is not much precedent for a pitcher doing what Pettitte is attempting, which is for an older pitcher to have a productive season, retire, then come back after a year off. This post will look at some examples of older pitchers' performance in recent years.

For context, the projection systems Marcels, ZiPS, and Steamers project Andy Pettitte will pitch in the range of 73-125 IP, with an ERA ranging from 4.01 to 4.45. These are reasonable projections for Pettitte's regular-season performance. While these projections represent serviceable performance, I am hoping for more - 160 IP and performance above league average.

The following table gives examples that show the range of possibilities. The table lists shows the innings pitched and ERA of each pitcher since Andy started pitching in 1995 who 39 or older and pitched at least 100 innings in a season. Only relatively recent seasons were included in case there are any variables in this era that impact pitcher longevity. To provide context, each row also shows the pitcher's ERA+:

Name	Year	Age	IP	ERA	ERA+
Brown, Kevin	2004	39	132.0	4.09	111
Candiotti, Tom	1997	39	135.0	3.60	109
Candiotti, Tom	1998	40	201.0	4.84	92
Clemens, Roger	2002	39	180.0	4.35	103
Clemens, Roger	2003	40	211.7	3.91	114
Clemens, Roger	2004	41	214.3	2.98	148
Clemens, Roger	2005	42	211.3	1.87	228
Clemens, Roger	2006	43	113.3	2.30	195
Darwin, Danny	1996	40	164.7	3.77	125
Darwin, Danny	1997	41	157.3	4.35	100
Darwin, Danny	1998	42	148.7	5.51	73
Fassero, Jeff	2004	41	112.0	5.46	88
Finley, Chuck	2002	39	190.7	4.15	101
Glavine, Tom	2005	39	211.3	3.53	117
Glavine, Tom	2006	40	198.0	3.82	115
Glavine, Tom	2007	41	200.3	4.45	98
Hernandez, Orlando	2005	39	128.3	5.12	88
Hernandez, Orlando	2006	40	162.3	4.66	99
Hernandez, Orlando	2007	41	147.7	3.72	117
Hershiser, Orel	1998	39	202.0	4.41	91
Hershiser, Orel	1999	40	179.0	4.58	98
Johnson, Randy	2003	39	114.0	4.26	109
Johnson, Randy	2004	40	245.7	2.60	174
Johnson, Randy	2005	41	225.7	3.79	113
Johnson, Randy	2006	42	205.0	5.00	92
Johnson, Randy	2008	44	184.0	3.91	119
Jones, Doug	1999	42	104.0	3.55	129
Leiter, Al	2005	39	142.3	6.13	68
Maddux, Greg	2005	39	225.0	4.24	104
Maddux, Greg	2006	40	210.0	4.20	112
Maddux, Greg	2007	41	198.0	4.14	97
Maddux, Greg	2008	42	194.0	4.22	92
Martinez, Dennis	1995	40	187.0	3.08	155
Martinez, Dennis	1996	41	112.0	4.50	110
Morgan, Mike	1999	39	140.0	6.24	82
Morgan, Mike	2000	40	101.7	4.87	100
Moyer, Jamie	2002	39	230.7	3.32	131
Moyer, Jamie	2003	40	215.0	3.27	132
Moyer, Jamie	2004	41	202.0	5.21	86
Moyer, Jamie	2005	42	200.0	4.28	97
Moyer, Jamie	2006	43	211.3	4.30	105
Moyer, Jamie	2007	44	199.3	5.01	92
Moyer, Jamie	2008	45	196.3	3.71	119
Moyer, Jamie	2009	46	162.0	4.94	86
Moyer, Jamie	2010	47	111.7	4.84	84
Mulholland, Terry	2004	41	123.3	5.18	92
Mussina, Mike	2008	39	200.3	3.37	133
Rogers, Kenny	2004	39	211.7	4.76	105
Rogers, Kenny	2005	40	195.3	3.46	134
Rogers, Kenny	2006	41	204.0	3.84	119
Rogers, Kenny	2008	43	173.7	5.70	79
Schilling, Curt	2006	39	204.0	3.97	121
Schilling, Curt	2007	40	151.0	3.87	124
Smoltz, John	2006	39	232.0	3.49	129
Smoltz, John	2007	40	205.7	3.11	140
Wakefield, Tim	2006	39	140.0	4.63	103
Wakefield, Tim	2007	40	189.0	4.76	101
Wakefield, Tim	2008	41	181.0	4.13	114
Wakefield, Tim	2009	42	129.7	4.58	103
Wakefield, Tim	2010	43	140.0	5.34	82
Wakefield, Tim	2011	44	154.7	5.12	84
Wells, David	2002	39	206.3	3.75	119
Wells, David	2003	40	213.0	4.14	107
Wells, David	2004	41	195.7	3.73	104
Wells, David	2005	42	184.0	4.45	102
Wells, David	2007	44	157.3	5.43	76
Williams, Woody	2006	39	145.3	3.65	112
Williams, Woody	2007	40	188.0	5.27	84

Andy Pettitte and Older Pitchers Coming Back After Missing a Year

I'm very excited about the comeback of Andy Pettitte. The potential for another valuable season is of course the most important reason. But I've always enjoyed just watching Pettitte pitch. The man is a pitching artist with a versatile set of weapons - he has an array of effective pitches, gets batters to ground into double plays, and has that nasty pickoff move.

And then Andy has a couple of quirks that I find fun to watch:

• His intense glare - sometimes he looks like he perceives nothing but the catcher's glove, and is completely unaware of the screaming fans and the pressure of a situation.
• The way he'll walk off the field at the end of an inning yelling at himself after getting out of a jam, because he was imperfect enough to get into the jam in the first place.

But how likely is it that he will make a valuable contribution to the 2012 Yankees? He starts with 2 strikes against him: the fact that he will be 40 is strike 1, and the fact that he missed a year is strike 2. So, can similar precedents in baseball history give us insight into the chances of success?

With that question in mind, I thought it would be interesting to look at is the history of older pitchers in a similar situation to Pettitte. To do this, I queried for all pitchers who pitched at least 100 innings in a year, did not pitch the year after, and then pitched 2 years after, filtering for only pitchers who were 34 or over in the "comeback" year. The following table shows the results:

Name	Year	Year Comeback	Age - Comeback	IP	IP Comeback	ERA	ERA Comeback
Hamlin, Luke	1942	1944	39	112.0	190.0	3.94	3.74
Mungo, Van	1943	1945	34	154.3	183.0	3.91	3.20
Galehouse, Denny	1944	1946	34	153.0	180.0	3.12	3.65
Lieber, Jon	2002	2004	34	141.0	176.7	3.70	4.33
Blyleven, Bert	1990	1992	41	134.0	133.0	5.24	4.74
Bell, Hi	1930	1932	34	115.3	120.0	3.90	3.68
Gumbert, Harry	1944	1946	36	216.7	119.0	3.07	3.25
Hernandez, Orlando	2002	2004	38	146.0	84.7	3.64	3.29
Falkenberg, Cy	1915	1917	36	220.0	80.7	2.86	3.35
Shoun, Clyde	1944	1946	34	202.7	79.0	3.02	4.10
Heusser, Ed	1946	1948	39	167.7	74.0	3.22	4.99
Smoltz, John	1999	2001	34	186.3	59.0	3.19	3.36
Helling, Rick	2003	2005	34	155.0	49.0	5.17	2.39
Hutchison, Bill	1895	1897	37	291.0	40.0	4.73	6.08
Lolich, Mickey	1976	1978	37	192.7	34.7	3.22	1.56
Locker, Bob	1973	1975	37	106.3	32.7	2.54	4.95
Johnson, Jason	2006	2008	34	115.0	29.3	6.10	5.22
Erickson, Scott	2002	2004	36	160.7	27.0	5.54	6.67
Schmit, Crazy	1899	1901	35	138.3	22.7	5.86	1.98
Reuschel, Rick	1981	1983	34	156.3	20.7	3.11	3.91
Cone, David	2001	2003	40	135.7	18.0	4.31	6.50
Benge, Ray	1936	1938	36	160.7	15.3	5.49	4.12
Saberhagen, Bret	1999	2001	37	119.0	15.0	2.95	6.00
Bridges, Tommy	1943	1945	38	191.7	11.0	2.39	3.27
Coombs, Jack	1918	1920	37	189.0	5.7	3.81	3.16
Pettit, Leon	1935	1937	35	109.0	4.0	4.95	11.25
Muncrief, Bob	1949	1951	35	110.7	3.0	5.12	9.00
Castillo, Frank	2002	2004	35	163.3	1.0	5.07	0.00
Flaherty, Patsy	1908	1910	34	244.0	0.3	3.25	0.00